AP Photo/Keith Srakocic
Democratic candidate for the Pennsylvania U.S.senate seat in the 2022 primary election, Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, arrives for a campaign stop at the Mechanistic Brewery, in Clarion, Pa., Saturday, Feb. 12, 2022. The Democratic Party's brand is so toxic in some parts of rural America that liberals are removing bumper stickers and refusing to acknowledge their party affiliation publicly.
SMETHPORT, Pa. (AP) — Some Democrats here in rural Pennsylvania are afraid to tell you they’re Democrats.
The party’s brand is so toxic in the small towns 100 miles northeast of Pittsburgh that some liberals have removed bumper stickers and yard signs and refuse to acknowledge their party affiliation publicly. These Democrats are used to being outnumbered by the local Republican majority, but as their numbers continue to dwindle, the few that remain are feeling increasingly isolated and unwelcome in their own communities.
“The hatred for Democrats is just unbelievable,” said Tim Holohan, an accountant based in rural McKean County who recently encouraged his daughter to get rid of a pro-Joe Biden bumper sticker. “I feel like we’re on the run.”
The climate across rural Pennsylvania is symptomatic of a larger political problem threatening the Democratic Party ahead of the 2022 midterm elections. Beyond losing votes in virtually every election since 2008, Democrats have been effectively ostracized from many parts of rural America, leaving party leaders with few options to reverse a cultural trend that is redefining the nation’s political landscape.
The shifting climate helped Republicans limit Democratic gains in 2020 — the GOP actually gained House seats despite former President Donald Trump’s loss — and a year later, surging Republican rural support enabled Republicans to claim the Virginia governorship. A small but vocal group of party officials now fears the same trends will undermine Democratic candidates in Ohio, Wisconsin, Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, states that will help decide the Senate majority in November, and the White House two years after that.
Meanwhile, the Democratic Party continues to devote the vast majority of its energy, messaging and resources to voters in more populated urban and suburban areas.
In Pennsylvania, Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, a leading candidate in the state’s high-stakes Senate contest, insists his party can no longer afford to ignore rural voters. The former small-town mayor drove his black Dodge Ram pickup truck across five rural counties last weekend to face voters who almost never see statewide Democratic candidates.
AP Photo/Keith Srakocic
Democratic candidate for the Pennsylvania U.S.senate seat in the 2022 primary election, Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, center, talks with people during a campaign stop at the Mechanistic Brewery, in Clarion, Pa., Saturday, Feb. 12, 2022.
Fetterman, wearing his signature hooded sweatshirt and gym shorts despite the freezing temperatures, described himself as a champion for “the forgotten, the marginalized and the left-behind places” as he addressed roughly 100 people inside a bingo hall in McKean County, a place Trump carried with 72% of the vote in 2020.
“These are the kind of places that matter just as much as any other place,” Fetterman said as the crowd cheered.
The Democratic Party’s struggle in rural America has been building for years. And it’s getting worse.
Barack Obama won 875 counties nationwide in his overwhelming 2008 victory. Twelve years later, Biden won only 527. The vast majority of those losses — 260 of the 348 counties — took place in rural counties, according to data compiled by The Associated Press.
The worst losses were concentrated in the Midwest: 21 rural counties in Michigan flipped from Obama in 2008 to Trump in 2020; Democrats lost 28 rural counties in Minnesota, 32 in Wisconsin and a whopping 45 in Iowa. At the same time, recent Republican voter registration gains in swing states like Florida and North Carolina were fueled disproportionately by rural voters.
Biden overcame rural losses to beat Trump in 2020 because of gains in more populous Democratic counties. Perhaps because of his victory, some Democratic officials worry that party leaders do not appreciate the severity of the threat.
Democratic Rep. Jim Cooper of Tennessee, who recently announced he would not seek reelection to Congress this fall, warns that the party is facing extinction in small-town America.
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‘The brand is so toxic’: Democrats fear extinction in rural America
AP file
Incumbent: Republican Pat Toomey (retiring)
Pennsylvania remains the seat most likely to flip, although Republicans feel better about holding retiring Sen. Pat Toomey's seat now that the Trump-backed candidate is out of the race and several new candidates have jumped in.
"We have an embarrassment of riches," McConnell told Raju in late January. The biggest new name is hedge fund executive David McCormick. A former Treasury official in the George W. Bush administration who lived in Connecticut for years, McCormick has rolled out ads trying to convince voters that "his Pennsylvania roots will keep him grounded." He's the husband of Dina Powell McCormick, who was Trump's deputy national security adviser. Sean Parnell, the Trump endorsee who suspended his campaign after a public custody battle that was generating worrisome headlines for the GOP, quickly backed McCormick, as did Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, who recently rallied with him in the state.
McCormick and his allies are already in a sniping contest with Dr. Mehmet Oz, who entered the race late last fall and had loaned his campaign more than $5 million, according to his recent FEC filing. Honor Pennsylvania, an anti-Oz group, is attacking the former talk show host as a "Hollywood liberal." (Like McCormick, Oz recently lived out of state, in New Jersey.) American Leadership Action, a pro-Oz group, is going after McCormick's business record, as is Oz's campaign.
There were already Republicans running here -- allies of businessman Jeff Bartos, for example, are attacking the two newcomers as carpetbaggers -- and Carla Sands, who was ambassador to Denmark under Trump, loaned her campaign another $500,000 in the fourth quarter.
While Democrats are enjoying watching Republicans duke it out, they have their own crowded primary. Lt. Gov. John Fetterman is still the fundraising leader, raising $2.7 million in the fourth quarter. Rep. Conor Lamb -- who, like Fetterman, is from the western part of the state -- has picked up some labor endorsements and the backing of the mayor of Philadelphia. He finished ahead of the other candidates in a state party committee vote last weekend but fell short of the threshold for an endorsement.
AP file
Incumbent: Republican Pat Toomey (retiring)
Pennsylvania remains the seat most likely to flip, although Republicans feel better about holding retiring Sen. Pat Toomey's seat now that the Trump-backed candidate is out of the race and several new candidates have jumped in.
"We have an embarrassment of riches," McConnell told Raju in late January. The biggest new name is hedge fund executive David McCormick. A former Treasury official in the George W. Bush administration who lived in Connecticut for years, McCormick has rolled out ads trying to convince voters that "his Pennsylvania roots will keep him grounded." He's the husband of Dina Powell McCormick, who was Trump's deputy national security adviser. Sean Parnell, the Trump endorsee who suspended his campaign after a public custody battle that was generating worrisome headlines for the GOP, quickly backed McCormick, as did Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, who recently rallied with him in the state.
McCormick and his allies are already in a sniping contest with Dr. Mehmet Oz, who entered the race late last fall and had loaned his campaign more than $5 million, according to his recent FEC filing. Honor Pennsylvania, an anti-Oz group, is attacking the former talk show host as a "Hollywood liberal." (Like McCormick, Oz recently lived out of state, in New Jersey.) American Leadership Action, a pro-Oz group, is going after McCormick's business record, as is Oz's campaign.
There were already Republicans running here -- allies of businessman Jeff Bartos, for example, are attacking the two newcomers as carpetbaggers -- and Carla Sands, who was ambassador to Denmark under Trump, loaned her campaign another $500,000 in the fourth quarter.
While Democrats are enjoying watching Republicans duke it out, they have their own crowded primary. Lt. Gov. John Fetterman is still the fundraising leader, raising $2.7 million in the fourth quarter. Rep. Conor Lamb -- who, like Fetterman, is from the western part of the state -- has picked up some labor endorsements and the backing of the mayor of Philadelphia. He finished ahead of the other candidates in a state party committee vote last weekend but fell short of the threshold for an endorsement.
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‘The brand is so toxic’: Democrats fear extinction in rural America
AP file
Incumbent: Democrat Raphael Warnock
After winning a special election runoff last winter that helped flip the Senate, Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock never slowed down. He raised $9.8 million in the fourth quarter as he seeks a full six-year term in November. Only a sum like that could make the nearly $5.4 million that Republican challenger Herschel Walker raised seem paltry. Since Biden won the state in 2020, Georgia has remained one of the most interesting political battlegrounds that's also home to a high-profile gubernatorial race and is ground zero for the fight for voting rights, which Democrats hope could energize turnout on their side. With the national spotlight on his state, Warnock isn't likely to be hurting for money anytime soon.
And while staggering Democratic fundraising hasn't always translated to success (see South Carolina in 2020 or Texas in 2018), public polling suggests this race is competitive. A recent Quinnipiac University poll showed no clear leader, with Walker at 49% and Warnock at 48% among registered voters. Republicans are feeling confident about this race now that McConnell and Trump are united behind Walker, even if the former NFL star remains largely untested as a candidate, and because the national environment has looked increasingly strong for them. Biden's job approval rating in the Peach State in that Quinnipiac poll, for example, was 36%. But Democrats take heart that Warnock's job approval was a higher 47%. With Senate races so nationalized these days, Warnock will need to continue to overperform Biden -- as he did in 2021 -- if he's going to survive in November, regardless of how many millions he raises.
AP file
Incumbent: Democrat Raphael Warnock
After winning a special election runoff last winter that helped flip the Senate, Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock never slowed down. He raised $9.8 million in the fourth quarter as he seeks a full six-year term in November. Only a sum like that could make the nearly $5.4 million that Republican challenger Herschel Walker raised seem paltry. Since Biden won the state in 2020, Georgia has remained one of the most interesting political battlegrounds that's also home to a high-profile gubernatorial race and is ground zero for the fight for voting rights, which Democrats hope could energize turnout on their side. With the national spotlight on his state, Warnock isn't likely to be hurting for money anytime soon.
And while staggering Democratic fundraising hasn't always translated to success (see South Carolina in 2020 or Texas in 2018), public polling suggests this race is competitive. A recent Quinnipiac University poll showed no clear leader, with Walker at 49% and Warnock at 48% among registered voters. Republicans are feeling confident about this race now that McConnell and Trump are united behind Walker, even if the former NFL star remains largely untested as a candidate, and because the national environment has looked increasingly strong for them. Biden's job approval rating in the Peach State in that Quinnipiac poll, for example, was 36%. But Democrats take heart that Warnock's job approval was a higher 47%. With Senate races so nationalized these days, Warnock will need to continue to overperform Biden -- as he did in 2021 -- if he's going to survive in November, regardless of how many millions he raises.
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‘The brand is so toxic’: Democrats fear extinction in rural America
AP file
Incumbent: Republican Ron Johnson
The big news here is GOP Sen. Ron Johnson is running for reelection, which reassured Republicans and enthused Democrats. Republicans are glad to be avoiding another messy primary, and they're thankful Johnson didn't wait even longer to make his announcement. In a video explaining his decision, Johnson says he intended for his current term to be his last but cannot "walk away" after seeing "the Democrats in total control."
Democrats, however, are thrilled that Johnson -- who has continued to make controversial and misleading statements about Covid-19 and January 6 -- is running. They believe he's a damaged enough incumbent that it will be easier to flip this seat with him in it than if he weren't. Senate Majority PAC, the preeminent Democratic super PAC, quickly attacked Johnson for being "deep in the swamp." Johnson's announcement also prompted the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee to launch its first TV ad of the cycle, hitting him for "looking out for himself."
Republicans think a strong national environment will help them hold on to this seat, especially if they can paint the eventual Democratic nominee as too far left for the state, which backed Biden by less than a point in 2020. They're excited about the prospect of running against Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, for example, who has the support of Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts. Barnes raised $1.2 million in the fourth quarter -- which is more than Johnson's $711,000 but lower than some Democratic challengers across the country. And he faces a crowded primary, including Milwaukee Bucks executive Alex Lasry, who loaned his campaign about $1.5 million in the fourth quarter and has been running a series of ads on TV.
AP file
Incumbent: Republican Ron Johnson
The big news here is GOP Sen. Ron Johnson is running for reelection, which reassured Republicans and enthused Democrats. Republicans are glad to be avoiding another messy primary, and they're thankful Johnson didn't wait even longer to make his announcement. In a video explaining his decision, Johnson says he intended for his current term to be his last but cannot "walk away" after seeing "the Democrats in total control."
Democrats, however, are thrilled that Johnson -- who has continued to make controversial and misleading statements about Covid-19 and January 6 -- is running. They believe he's a damaged enough incumbent that it will be easier to flip this seat with him in it than if he weren't. Senate Majority PAC, the preeminent Democratic super PAC, quickly attacked Johnson for being "deep in the swamp." Johnson's announcement also prompted the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee to launch its first TV ad of the cycle, hitting him for "looking out for himself."
Republicans think a strong national environment will help them hold on to this seat, especially if they can paint the eventual Democratic nominee as too far left for the state, which backed Biden by less than a point in 2020. They're excited about the prospect of running against Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, for example, who has the support of Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts. Barnes raised $1.2 million in the fourth quarter -- which is more than Johnson's $711,000 but lower than some Democratic challengers across the country. And he faces a crowded primary, including Milwaukee Bucks executive Alex Lasry, who loaned his campaign about $1.5 million in the fourth quarter and has been running a series of ads on TV.
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‘The brand is so toxic’: Democrats fear extinction in rural America
AP file
Incumbent: Democrat Mark Kelly
Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly, like Warnock in Georgia, continues to post impressive fundraising numbers as he runs for a full six-year term in November. Kelly raised nearly $9 million in the last quarter. That, on its own, should put Republicans on notice in an increasingly purple state that Biden narrowly won in 2020. But unlike Georgia, where the GOP has largely coalesced around one candidate, Republicans here face a real headache with a messy candidate field ahead of the August primary. There have been renewed rumors about Gov. Doug Ducey running, which would please McConnell and national Republicans, but he's a frequent target of Trump and doesn't appear to have made any moves ahead of the April filing deadline.
That leaves Attorney General Mark Brnovich, whose fundraising continues to be underwhelming (he raised about $800,000 last quarter) and venture capitalist Blake Masters, among several others, duking it out. Masters raised nearly $1.6 million, but he also has the advantage of a Peter Thiel-backed super PAC touting him as a "Trump conservative." Based on the advertising in the state -- which has already crept past $30 million, according to CNN's analysis of AdImpact data as of Friday -- Republicans are leaning into the Trump loyalty contest. Solar energy entrepreneur Jim Lamon, for example, who loaned his campaign $3 million in the fourth quarter, is going all-in on Trump's claims of a rigged election.
Regardless of their nominee, Republicans think it's a winnable race, especially if the national environment continues to look bleak for Biden and other Democrats, and they're eager to go after Kelly's voting record and exploit the differences between him and his more moderate Democratic Arizona colleague, Sen. Kyrsten Sinema.
AP file
Incumbent: Democrat Mark Kelly
Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly, like Warnock in Georgia, continues to post impressive fundraising numbers as he runs for a full six-year term in November. Kelly raised nearly $9 million in the last quarter. That, on its own, should put Republicans on notice in an increasingly purple state that Biden narrowly won in 2020. But unlike Georgia, where the GOP has largely coalesced around one candidate, Republicans here face a real headache with a messy candidate field ahead of the August primary. There have been renewed rumors about Gov. Doug Ducey running, which would please McConnell and national Republicans, but he's a frequent target of Trump and doesn't appear to have made any moves ahead of the April filing deadline.
That leaves Attorney General Mark Brnovich, whose fundraising continues to be underwhelming (he raised about $800,000 last quarter) and venture capitalist Blake Masters, among several others, duking it out. Masters raised nearly $1.6 million, but he also has the advantage of a Peter Thiel-backed super PAC touting him as a "Trump conservative." Based on the advertising in the state -- which has already crept past $30 million, according to CNN's analysis of AdImpact data as of Friday -- Republicans are leaning into the Trump loyalty contest. Solar energy entrepreneur Jim Lamon, for example, who loaned his campaign $3 million in the fourth quarter, is going all-in on Trump's claims of a rigged election.
Regardless of their nominee, Republicans think it's a winnable race, especially if the national environment continues to look bleak for Biden and other Democrats, and they're eager to go after Kelly's voting record and exploit the differences between him and his more moderate Democratic Arizona colleague, Sen. Kyrsten Sinema.
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‘The brand is so toxic’: Democrats fear extinction in rural America
AP file
Incumbent: Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto
This is one of the few contests, like Georgia, where Trump and McConnell have already united behind the same candidate. In Nevada, it's former state Attorney General Adam Laxalt, the grandson of the former governor and senator with the same last name. The GOP's ability to coalesce around him ahead of the June primary could be critical to winning the seat, but he still faces competition. Retired Army Capt. Sam Brown raised about $1 million in the fourth quarter, just shy of Laxalt's $1.3 million.
Republicans are hopeful that Biden's sagging approval ratings and voters' anxieties will help them in the state, which has seen its share of pandemic and inflation woes.
"I don't know if it's the President, or what happened, but (under Trump) it was so much better," one Nevada voter who has recently voted for Democrats told CNN's Maeve Reston in early January.
Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, the former chair of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, raised about $3.3 million last quarter and hasn't yet really reintroduced herself to voters. Democrats have long believed that abortion could be a salient issue here -- especially since Laxalt's opposition to abortion rights puts him at odds with the state's most recent GOP governor -- and are hoping the Supreme Court vacancy will help bring more attention to that contrast by reminding voters what's at stake. But Republicans' inroads with Hispanics, combined with the state's non-college-educated White population, make this race among the most competitive.
AP file
Incumbent: Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto
This is one of the few contests, like Georgia, where Trump and McConnell have already united behind the same candidate. In Nevada, it's former state Attorney General Adam Laxalt, the grandson of the former governor and senator with the same last name. The GOP's ability to coalesce around him ahead of the June primary could be critical to winning the seat, but he still faces competition. Retired Army Capt. Sam Brown raised about $1 million in the fourth quarter, just shy of Laxalt's $1.3 million.
Republicans are hopeful that Biden's sagging approval ratings and voters' anxieties will help them in the state, which has seen its share of pandemic and inflation woes.
"I don't know if it's the President, or what happened, but (under Trump) it was so much better," one Nevada voter who has recently voted for Democrats told CNN's Maeve Reston in early January.
Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, the former chair of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, raised about $3.3 million last quarter and hasn't yet really reintroduced herself to voters. Democrats have long believed that abortion could be a salient issue here -- especially since Laxalt's opposition to abortion rights puts him at odds with the state's most recent GOP governor -- and are hoping the Supreme Court vacancy will help bring more attention to that contrast by reminding voters what's at stake. But Republicans' inroads with Hispanics, combined with the state's non-college-educated White population, make this race among the most competitive.
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‘The brand is so toxic’: Democrats fear extinction in rural America
AP file
Incumbent: Republican Richard Burr (retiring)
Trump's endorsement in this race nearly eight months ago has yet to clear the GOP field, with none of the candidates posting stellar fundraising. In fact, former Rep. Mark Walker announced last week that he would carry on with his Senate campaign rather than drop down to a House race with the possibility of an endorsement from the ex-President. Rep. Ted Budd, Trump's pick for Senate, raised $968,000 in the fourth quarter and continues to introduce himself to voters statewide, while the Club for Growth's political arm spends big to help him. That includes going hard after former Gov. Pat McCrory, who raised $748,000. Combat veteran Marjorie K. Eastman raised $423,000 and is less well known but has benefited from nearly $1 million in outside spending from a group called Restore Common Sense. The delay in the state's primaries from March to May, thanks to redistricting litigation, will give Republicans more time to sort out their field.
Democrats, meanwhile, have a prohibitive favorite in former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Cheri Beasley after other major candidates dropped out. She raised $2.1 million in the last quarter. While Republicans likely start with the advantage in this state that Trump carried by about a point in 2020, Democrats are hopeful Beasley can energize minority turnout in a non-presidential year.
AP file
Incumbent: Republican Richard Burr (retiring)
Trump's endorsement in this race nearly eight months ago has yet to clear the GOP field, with none of the candidates posting stellar fundraising. In fact, former Rep. Mark Walker announced last week that he would carry on with his Senate campaign rather than drop down to a House race with the possibility of an endorsement from the ex-President. Rep. Ted Budd, Trump's pick for Senate, raised $968,000 in the fourth quarter and continues to introduce himself to voters statewide, while the Club for Growth's political arm spends big to help him. That includes going hard after former Gov. Pat McCrory, who raised $748,000. Combat veteran Marjorie K. Eastman raised $423,000 and is less well known but has benefited from nearly $1 million in outside spending from a group called Restore Common Sense. The delay in the state's primaries from March to May, thanks to redistricting litigation, will give Republicans more time to sort out their field.
Democrats, meanwhile, have a prohibitive favorite in former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Cheri Beasley after other major candidates dropped out. She raised $2.1 million in the last quarter. While Republicans likely start with the advantage in this state that Trump carried by about a point in 2020, Democrats are hopeful Beasley can energize minority turnout in a non-presidential year.
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‘The brand is so toxic’: Democrats fear extinction in rural America
AP file
Incumbent: Democrat Maggie Hassan
Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan got a huge break when Republican Gov. Chris Sununu decided late last year to run for reelection rather than challenge her. Besides retired Army Brig. Gen. Don Bolduc, several other Republicans are now hoping to take on Hassan, although none of Sununu's stature. Londonderry Town Manager Kevin Smith, who unsuccessfully sought the GOP gubernatorial nod in 2012, announced his campaign last month. State Senate President Chuck Morse followed over the weekend, riding a skid-steer loader into his snowy announcement event, WMUR reported. McConnell singled out Morse in his interview with CNN last week, saying, "We think we'll have a good candidate there."
Democrats have done well in the Granite State in recent federal elections, with Biden carrying the state by 7 points in 2020. But his approval rating slipped last fall, giving Republicans hope they'd unseat Hassan even without their preferred candidate. Biden's numbers had somewhat improved by mid-December, returning to July levels, according to the most recent University of New Hampshire Granite State Poll. Hassan, who raised $3.2 million in the last quarter, isn't in as competitive a race as she could have been had Sununu thrown his hat in the ring, but she still has to hope that the national environment doesn't endanger her. Only 28% of New Hampshire residents in that Granite State Poll, for example, said things in the US "are headed in the right direction."
AP file
Incumbent: Democrat Maggie Hassan
Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan got a huge break when Republican Gov. Chris Sununu decided late last year to run for reelection rather than challenge her. Besides retired Army Brig. Gen. Don Bolduc, several other Republicans are now hoping to take on Hassan, although none of Sununu's stature. Londonderry Town Manager Kevin Smith, who unsuccessfully sought the GOP gubernatorial nod in 2012, announced his campaign last month. State Senate President Chuck Morse followed over the weekend, riding a skid-steer loader into his snowy announcement event, WMUR reported. McConnell singled out Morse in his interview with CNN last week, saying, "We think we'll have a good candidate there."
Democrats have done well in the Granite State in recent federal elections, with Biden carrying the state by 7 points in 2020. But his approval rating slipped last fall, giving Republicans hope they'd unseat Hassan even without their preferred candidate. Biden's numbers had somewhat improved by mid-December, returning to July levels, according to the most recent University of New Hampshire Granite State Poll. Hassan, who raised $3.2 million in the last quarter, isn't in as competitive a race as she could have been had Sununu thrown his hat in the ring, but she still has to hope that the national environment doesn't endanger her. Only 28% of New Hampshire residents in that Granite State Poll, for example, said things in the US "are headed in the right direction."
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‘The brand is so toxic’: Democrats fear extinction in rural America
AP file
Incumbent: Republican Marco Rubio
GOP Sen. Marco Rubio is running for a third term in a state that has favored Republicans recently. (Trump carried it by 3 points in 2020.) That means he starts as the favorite, but Democratic Rep. Val Demings, who was a contender for Biden's running mate, has been an impressive fundraiser. She raised about $7.2 million in the fourth quarter -- more than Rubio's $5.2 million, although he ended 2021 with more cash on hand. Demings will need the money to introduce herself statewide across expensive media markets.
Rubio has recently been touting his support from law enforcement, trying to counter any advantages Demings might bring to the race as a former Orlando police chief. The congresswoman responded last week by calling Rubio a "lifelong politician," saying that during her tenure with the police she had helped respond to "some dark, scary places" while he was "home in his bed sleeping," according to the South Florida Sun Sentinel.
AP file
Incumbent: Republican Marco Rubio
GOP Sen. Marco Rubio is running for a third term in a state that has favored Republicans recently. (Trump carried it by 3 points in 2020.) That means he starts as the favorite, but Democratic Rep. Val Demings, who was a contender for Biden's running mate, has been an impressive fundraiser. She raised about $7.2 million in the fourth quarter -- more than Rubio's $5.2 million, although he ended 2021 with more cash on hand. Demings will need the money to introduce herself statewide across expensive media markets.
Rubio has recently been touting his support from law enforcement, trying to counter any advantages Demings might bring to the race as a former Orlando police chief. The congresswoman responded last week by calling Rubio a "lifelong politician," saying that during her tenure with the police she had helped respond to "some dark, scary places" while he was "home in his bed sleeping," according to the South Florida Sun Sentinel.
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‘The brand is so toxic’: Democrats fear extinction in rural America
AP file
Incumbent: Republican Rob Portman (retiring)
The Republican primary field to replace retiring GOP Sen. Rob Portman remains unsettled ahead of the May primary as candidates and their allies frantically put out polls to try to shape their own narratives of the race. The Club for Growth's political arm is spending for former state Treasurer Josh Mandel, attacking "Hillbilly Elegy" author J.D. Vance and former state party Chair Jane Timken. Almost all the candidates, including a couple of big-spending businessmen, are leaning heavily into Trump's rhetoric, creating a sharp distinction from the senator they're hoping to succeed.
Vance claimed in a tweet thread on the anniversary of the US Capitol insurrection that many of the rioters in a DC jail are "political prisoners," adding, "They are our people." He also recently secured the endorsement of controversial GOP Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia, which he likely hopes will blunt some of his past public criticism of Trump. State Sen. Matt Dolan was the rare candidate to describe January 6 as "an attack on American democracy" in a statement on the one-year anniversary, calling out "fake conservatives willing to sacrifice our most sacred text, the Constitution, in favor of political expedience." He's invested a stunning $10.5 million of his own money into his campaign (mostly in contributions, not loans) but faces a steep uphill battle in a GOP primary that revolves around Trump.
On the Democratic side, Rep. Tim Ryan, who raised $2.9 million last quarter, has largely consolidated support, but Ohio, which Trump carried by 8 points, remains a tough state for anyone in his party who's not Sen. Sherrod Brown.
AP file
Incumbent: Republican Rob Portman (retiring)
The Republican primary field to replace retiring GOP Sen. Rob Portman remains unsettled ahead of the May primary as candidates and their allies frantically put out polls to try to shape their own narratives of the race. The Club for Growth's political arm is spending for former state Treasurer Josh Mandel, attacking "Hillbilly Elegy" author J.D. Vance and former state party Chair Jane Timken. Almost all the candidates, including a couple of big-spending businessmen, are leaning heavily into Trump's rhetoric, creating a sharp distinction from the senator they're hoping to succeed.
Vance claimed in a tweet thread on the anniversary of the US Capitol insurrection that many of the rioters in a DC jail are "political prisoners," adding, "They are our people." He also recently secured the endorsement of controversial GOP Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia, which he likely hopes will blunt some of his past public criticism of Trump. State Sen. Matt Dolan was the rare candidate to describe January 6 as "an attack on American democracy" in a statement on the one-year anniversary, calling out "fake conservatives willing to sacrifice our most sacred text, the Constitution, in favor of political expedience." He's invested a stunning $10.5 million of his own money into his campaign (mostly in contributions, not loans) but faces a steep uphill battle in a GOP primary that revolves around Trump.
On the Democratic side, Rep. Tim Ryan, who raised $2.9 million last quarter, has largely consolidated support, but Ohio, which Trump carried by 8 points, remains a tough state for anyone in his party who's not Sen. Sherrod Brown.
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‘The brand is so toxic’: Democrats fear extinction in rural America
AP file
Incumbent: Republican Roy Blunt (retiring)
Missouri is different from most of the states on this list in that it really wouldn't be here if it weren't for one man. "Missouri is potentially challenging depending on the outcome in the primary," McConnell told Raju. Former Gov. Eric Greitens, who resigned from office following a probe into allegations of sexual and campaign misconduct, threatens to put in play a red state that Trump won by 15 points in 2020. He's trying to align himself with Trump, and Kimberly Guilfoyle, the fiancée of the ex-President's son, is his campaign's national chair.
Greitens faces a handful of Republicans also trying to secure Trump's support ahead of the August primary. Rep. Billy Long, for example, ran an ad about Democrats "rigging the election." State Attorney General Eric Schmitt recently announced lawsuits against school districts with masking rules, which is becoming a conservative rallying cry as the third year of the pandemic gets underway. GOP Rep. Vicky Hartzler -- the only woman in the race -- hasn't hesitated to go after Greitens, taking an implicit jab at his extramarital affair in her first ad released last fall.
The fear is that Greitens could jeopardize the general election much like GOP nominee Todd Akin did in the 2012 Senate contest. And the more Republicans in the race, the more splintered the primary vote will be, thereby lowering the threshold Greitens would need to win the nomination. Democrat Lucas Kunce raised $710,000 in the fourth quarter -- more than any of the Republicans excluding personal loans. But the Marine veteran will need more than money to make the race go his way.
AP file
Incumbent: Republican Roy Blunt (retiring)
Missouri is different from most of the states on this list in that it really wouldn't be here if it weren't for one man. "Missouri is potentially challenging depending on the outcome in the primary," McConnell told Raju. Former Gov. Eric Greitens, who resigned from office following a probe into allegations of sexual and campaign misconduct, threatens to put in play a red state that Trump won by 15 points in 2020. He's trying to align himself with Trump, and Kimberly Guilfoyle, the fiancée of the ex-President's son, is his campaign's national chair.
Greitens faces a handful of Republicans also trying to secure Trump's support ahead of the August primary. Rep. Billy Long, for example, ran an ad about Democrats "rigging the election." State Attorney General Eric Schmitt recently announced lawsuits against school districts with masking rules, which is becoming a conservative rallying cry as the third year of the pandemic gets underway. GOP Rep. Vicky Hartzler -- the only woman in the race -- hasn't hesitated to go after Greitens, taking an implicit jab at his extramarital affair in her first ad released last fall.
The fear is that Greitens could jeopardize the general election much like GOP nominee Todd Akin did in the 2012 Senate contest. And the more Republicans in the race, the more splintered the primary vote will be, thereby lowering the threshold Greitens would need to win the nomination. Democrat Lucas Kunce raised $710,000 in the fourth quarter -- more than any of the Republicans excluding personal loans. But the Marine veteran will need more than money to make the race go his way.
“It’s hard to sink lower than we are right now. You’re almost automatically a pariah in rural areas if you have a D after your name,” Cooper told The Associated Press.
Even if Democrats continue to eke out victories by piling up urban and suburban votes, former Sen. Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota fears her party will have “unstable majorities” if they cannot stop the bleeding in rural areas.
“Democrats have the House, they have the Senate, the presidency, but it’s an unstable majority. By that, I mean, the narrowest kind, making it difficult to advance ideas and build coalitions,” said Heitkamp, who now heads the One Country Project, which is focused on engaging rural voters.
AP Photo/Keith Srakocic
Democratic candidate for the Pennsylvania U.S.senate seat in the 2022 primary election, Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, arrives for a campaign stop at the Mechanistic Brewery, in Clarion, Pa., Saturday, Feb. 12, 2022.
She criticized her party’s go-to strategy for reaching rural voters: focusing on farmers and vowing to improve high-speed internet. At the same time, she said Democrats are hurting themselves by not speaking out more forcefully against far-left positions that alienate rural voters, such as the push to “defund the police.”
While only a handful of Democrats in Congress support stripping such money from police departments, for example, conservative media popular in rural communities — particularly Fox News — amplifies such positions.
AP Photo/Keith Srakocic
Democratic candidate for the Pennsylvania U.S. Senate seat in the 2022 primary election, Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, left, takes a selfie with Barbara Speer during a campaign stop at the Mechanistic Brewery, in Clarion, Pa., Saturday, Feb. 12, 2022.
“We’re letting Republicans use the language of the far left to define the Democratic Party, and we can’t do that,” Heitkamp said. “The trend lines in rural America are very, very bad. … Now, the brand is so toxic that people who are Democrats, the ones left, aren’t fighting for the party.”
To help win back rural voters, the Democratic National Committee has tapped Kylie Oversen, a former North Dakota state legislator, to work with rural organizers and state party rural caucuses as the chair of the national committee’s rural council. The DNC also says it’s sharing resources with people on the ground in rural areas to help improve training, recruiting and organizing.
So far, at least, those resources are not making life any easier for Democrats in northwestern Pennsylvania.
At one of Fetterman’s weekend stops in rural Clarion, a group of voters said they’ve been effectively ostracized by their community — and even family members, in some cases — for being Democrats. One woman brings her political signs inside at night so they aren’t vandalized or stolen.
“You have to be careful around here,” said Barbara Speer, 68, a retired sixth grade teacher.
AP Photo/Keith Srakocic
Signs mark the entrance to Michelle's Cafe along Main Street, in Clarion, Pa., Saturday, Feb. 12, 2022.
Nearby, Michelle’s Cafe on Clarion’s main street is one of the few gathering points for local Democrats. A sign on the door proclaims support for Black Lives Matter, LGBTQ rights and other progressive priorities.
But the cafe owner, 33-year-old Kaitlyn Nevel, isn’t comfortable sharing her political affiliation when asked.
AP Photo/Keith Srakocic
Eugenia Barboza, 22, talks about being a college student and politics while living in a small town, Saturday, Feb. 12, 2022. in Clarion, Pa.
“I would rather not say, just because it’s a small town,” she said.
One patron, 22-year-old college student Eugenia Barboza, said the cafe is one of the few places in town she feels safe as a Latina immigrant. Just down the road, she said, a caravan of Trump supporters met up to drive to the deadly protests in Washington on Jan. 6, 2021.
Barboza said she’s grateful that Democrats like Fetterman are willing to come to rural areas, but she isn’t hopeful that it’ll change much.
“It would take a lot more than just him,” she said. “It would take years and years and years.”
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