Covid-19 in Western New York: The latest map and statistics

As of Feb. 13, more than 89,200 Western New Yorkers have contracted Covid-19 since March and 2,121 have died of it.

The five-county region – which includes Erie, Niagara, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus and Allegany counties – has reported an average of 425 new cases per day over the previous seven days, as of Feb. 13.

The average represents a sharp decline from Jan. 10, which marked the highest seven-day average the region has seen during the pandemic (1,124).

Area hospitals have also seen a significant decrease. Hospitals reported 293 Covid-19 patients as of Feb. 13, the region’s lowest such total since Nov. 21 (273).

The figures still represent dramatic elevations from the virus’ summer and early fall levels. New infections peaked in late November and early December, when much of Erie and parts of Niagara County were placed under state “micro-cluster zone” restrictions. As the new year began, the region’s case levels and hospitalizations had approached or returned to their highest levels before subsiding significantly.

At the same time, the region has sought to rapidly ramp up its Covid-19 vaccination program. As of Feb. 14, nearly 200,000 doses had been administered in the region, not counting shots administered as part of the federal government’s nursing home program.

Over the week ending Feb. 14, regional vaccine providers administered an average of 6,013 Covid-19 shots per day. At that rate, it would take about 11 months to provide two doses to each of the region’s 1.1 million adults, though the pace of vaccination is accelerating and, with more supply, is expected to speed up further.

At various times during late 2020 and into early 2021, each of Western New York’s five counties had some of the state’s very highest coronavirus rates when population was accounted for.

Those numbers – the rate of new cases per 100,000 residents – subsided through mid- to late-January and into February.

As of Feb. 13, Erie County has a rolling seven-day average of 292 new cases per day, which is 32 cases per every 100,000 residents.

Niagara County has a rolling seven-day average of 64 new cases per day, which as of Feb. 13 translates to 31 cases per 100,000 residents.

Cattaraugus County has the highest rate of new cases per 100,000 residents among the five-county region with 25 new cases per day translating to 33 cases per 100,000 residents.

Since the coronavirus spike that began in late 2020, public health experts and officials have focused on metrics relating to hospital and intensive care unit capacity.

On Dec. 11, Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo announced changes to the state’s pandemic-control measures that placed new emphasis on hospital censuses. Western New York had reached a peak of 548 hospitalizations the day before, on Dec. 10.

The region’s hospitalizations as of Feb. 13 were 293, a drop of 94 over the past 11 days, continuing a sharp decline. The hospitalization number peaked in January at 546 on Jan. 4 and 540 on Jan. 15.

According to the state Department of Health, 35% of this region’s hospital beds – and 38% of its ICU beds – are available on average as of Feb. 13.

The region’s positive test rate rose from a seven-day average of 6.0% on Dec. 24 to an all-time high of 8.8% through Jan. 5, but has since fallen to 3.6% as of Feb. 13.

The positive rate describes the share of Covid-19 tests that come back positive, and is a leading indicator of the pandemic’s future course. A lower positive rate today, for instance, would suggest fewer hospitalizations and deaths in the weeks to come.

As of Feb. 12, the last date for which new numbers are available, public school districts in Erie and Niagara counties have reported a total of 2,457 in-school Covid-19 cases. Those include 243 in Williamsville; 162 in Niagara Falls; 146 in Frontier; 139 in Orchard Park; 132 in North Tonawanda; 110 in Kenmore-Town of Tonawanda; and 108 in Starpoint and Lockport.

Twenty-one new in-school cases were reported for Feb. 12, including three each in Frontier and Williamsville.

At the state level, the second wave has also been intense. During December and January, New York logged some of its highest daily infection numbers since the start of the pandemic. Average cases have fallen steadily since mid-January; that wave’s peak hit 9,273 on Jan. 19.

Statewide, as of Feb. 13, 6,593 patients were hospitalized with Covid-19, 1,285 of them in intensive care units. More than 1.4 million New Yorkers have contracted Covid-19 and more than 36,000 have died since the start of the pandemic.

This page will be updated daily with the latest statistics from the state and county departments of health, as well as new data from The New York Times’ national Covid-19 tracking project. You can get the latest updates by bookmarking this page or subscribing to The Buffalo News’ daily Covid-19 newsletter.

This article originally ran on buffalonews.com.