Health officials brace for COVID-19 surge post-holidays as Virginia records 15K new cases since Friday and traveler numbers peak

With Virginia’s percentage of positive COVID-19 tests climbing toward 12% and more than 4 million travelers passing through U.S. security checkpoints since Friday, health officials say the surge post-Christmas could bring hospitals to a breaking point.

“That is a huge area of concern for us, even more so than any other holidays of this past year,” said Dr. David Lanning, interim chief medical officer at VCU Medical Center. “We’re still seeing some of the effects from the Thanksgiving holiday, and now this may be an additional risk.”

Lanning said many families are also gathering with grandparents within the 60- to 80-plus age range — a group that has faced 90% of Virginia’s coronavirus deaths as of Tuesday.

The strain on hospitals is already intensifying within the state and overwhelming resources as they manage the fallout of Thanksgiving nearly a month later, according to Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association data.

On Tuesday, Virginia was averaging its highest rate of hospitalizations within a seven-day period — 2,420 — as VCU Health System prepared its surge plan to offset a potential influx of patients.

Compounded with limited bed capacity is the ongoing spike in infections. The Virginia Department of Health has recorded 15,093 new cases since Friday — the second-highest number reported over a Friday-to-Tuesday period.

Statewide, 146,400 vials of the Moderna vaccine and 50,700 Pfizer doses are slated to be distributed throughout this week. Vaccinating health care workers who are on the front lines of the virus and already facing staffing shortages is the priority.

The state is receiving nearly 110,000 fewer Pfizer vaccines than promised, and the impact of vaccination efforts will not be felt for months.

The pleas to stay home from local officials are coupled with federal guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The CDC recommends spending the holidays only with people who live with you, wearing a mask, maintaining social distancing and avoiding crowds.

“Travel can increase your chance of spreading and getting COVID-19,” read the statement on domestic travel posted this month. “You and travel companions (including children) may feel well and not have any symptoms, but you can still spread COVID-19 to family, friends, and community after travel.”

If an individual has had a known exposure, the CDC recommends delaying travel, getting tested and quarantining from other people.

First Moderna shipments

In a statement Tuesday, the Virginia Department of Health said the state’s remaining vials of the Moderna vaccine — which the Food and Drug Administration authorized Friday for emergency use — will be delivered on Wednesday.

The state is expecting a weekly allocation of 100,000 doses, or about 50,000 of both Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, but called the number a “moving target” that’s dependent on the manufacturing of doses.

Health departments in the Richmond region said in a statement that internal staff who will be working future vaccination events and clinics are expected to be some of the first to be vaccinated with the Moderna vaccine this week.

In a tweet, the Richmond City Health District noted receiving its first Moderna vaccine shipment on Tuesday.

Pfizer and Moderna, the two leading manufacturers, have outpaced competitors, with both reporting efficacy rates above 90%. Both vaccines require that patients receive two doses.

Health care workers and nursing home residents are priority in the first round of vaccinations, followed by essential workers once supplies and resources are expanded for distribution.

“Vaccines are our way out of this pandemic. With Pfizer-BioNTech and now Moderna vaccines available, more Virginians are able to get vaccinated,” the state health commissioner, Dr. Norman Oliver, said in a release. “The interest we are seeing from community members on when they can get vaccinated indicates people want this protection. We are working hard to get vaccines to people as quickly as possible.”

By the numbers

On Tuesday, the VDH reported 3,591 new cases, bringing the state’s seven-day average of daily cases to 3,739. Last week, the average was 3,654 cases per day.

On Monday, the VDH recorded the third-highest increase in new cases: 4,042. The second-highest was on Dec. 12 with 4,177 new cases. The first was on Dec. 9 with 4,398.

The percentage of positive results from COVID-19 testing is at 11.7%, meaning roughly one in nine Virginians tested have the virus. When the state was entering Phase 1 on May 15, the positivity rate was 14.4%.

Of the 314,481 total cases reported Tuesday, 268,472 have been classified as confirmed and 46,009 have been deemed probable, meaning people were symptomatic with a known exposure to COVID-19 but had not yet received a positive test result.

The state has had 4,705 deaths, an increase of 107 deaths since Friday and 51 deaths since Monday. The state is now averaging nearly 34 deaths per day over a seven-day period — a peak not seen since September.

The CDC’s forecasting model estimates Virginia’s death toll could reach nearly 5,000 by the end of this year.

The Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association’s COVID-19 dashboard — which presents data back to March 28 — showed a total of 28,175 people have been hospitalized for COVID-19 and released throughout the pandemic, and 2,508 people are currently hospitalized with the virus or have test results pending.

According to the VDH’s COVID-19 dashboard, 17,083 people have been hospitalized statewide for the virus, a nearly 400-person increase from Friday. The website notes this figure under-represents the total number of hospitalizations.

On Tuesday, 41,727 cases were associated with the state’s 1,836 outbreaks. The VDH classifies an outbreak as at least two lab-confirmed cases.

The Richmond area — including Chesterfield, Hanover and Henrico counties — has a total of 36,037 cases, 2,028 hospitalizations and 634 deaths.

Richmond has had 8,435 cases, 540 hospitalizations, 90 deaths and 123 outbreaks — the second-highest number in the state next to Fairfax, which has five times the city’s population.

The Chesterfield Health District, which includes Chesterfield County, Powhatan County and Colonial Heights, has had 13,139 cases, 648 hospitalizations, 192 deaths and 87 outbreaks.

Henrico County has had 11,081 cases, 661 hospitalizations, 284 deaths and 111 outbreaks. Hanover County has had 3,382 cases, 179 hospitalizations and 67 deaths.

The VDH dashboard operates on a roughly 17-hour delay in the reporting of statewide numbers. Figures might not include cases or deaths reported by localities or local health districts.

For questions regarding COVID-19 and vaccines, the VDH has a hotline at (804) 205-3501.

This article originally ran on richmond.com.